RANGES: LEVELS and low probability of breach RANGES on 30+ liquid/high IV assets for directional traders and premium sellers — July 17th
...AMD, GLD, SLV, MCD, TJX, KWEB, NUGT, HD, WPM...
The one-week ranges are calculated using live option chain exposure to identify high-probability support and resistance outer boundaries. These are put through a noise filter and adjusted using live volatility metrics as coefficients.
Success in the iron condor strategy comes down to execution. A win rate below 76% is not profitable, but consistently above that, you can quickly achieve Sharpe ratios of 0.8 to 1.0+. That’s the profit curve for Iron Condors. For collars or jade lizards (which could have a win rate of 80-85%) we obviously have different risk profiles…
My ranges typically sit around 6–15 delta, which technically means you have only a 6–15% chance of expiring in the money and getting assigned. If you select your assets carefully and time your risk-off weeks, a 78-79%+ win rate and a 0.8+ Sharpe ratio is achievable.
Theoretically, 6–15 delta strikes offer an 85–94% probability of success per position, but poor execution, tail events, or underestimating volatility clusters can drag your win rate below 76% for condor setups. Lower risk is the jade lizard. As mentioned above, the win rate would be far higher if set-up carefully. Setup selection would likely be:
Jade Lizards (capitalize on call premium)
Inverted Jade Lizards (capitalize on put premium)
Iron Condors (more balanced premium)
These strategies can offer more margin for error than many others when paired with disciplined risk management.
Risk Guidelines:
Max 2% portfolio allocation per position.
No more than 22% total portfolio exposure at any time.
Run minimum 7 active positions per week to maximize statistical edge.
Consider taking risk-off weeks each year to account for heightened times with tail risk.
IWM
Current Stock Price: $221.02
Weighted Delta Exposure: 181355.39
Weighted Gamma Exposure: 71299.59
Average Daily Volume: 33480076
Premium Analysis: Call premiums very high
1wk Price Ranges For Premium Selling:
$254.17
$223.97
-
$217.37
$187.87
CONVERGENT WALLS:
$221.00: Call Vanna Left + Put Vanna Right (Combined Strength: 1.650223)
$219.00: Call Gamma Right + Put Gamma Right (Combined Strength: 0.055579)
DIA
Current Stock Price: $442.36
Weighted Delta Exposure: 181289.98
Weighted Gamma Exposure: 48100.60
Average Daily Volume: 3357784
Premium Analysis: Call premiums very high
1wk Price Ranges For Premium Selling:
$508.71
$446.75
-
$437.58
$376.01
CONVERGENT WALLS:
$446.00: Put Vanna Left + Call Gamma Left (Combined Strength: 0.516973)
$443.00: Call Vanna Left + Put Vanna Right (Combined Strength: 1.725655)
-
$439.00: Call Gamma Right + Put Gamma Right (Combined Strength: 0.028971)
SMH
Current Stock Price: $289.28
Weighted Delta Exposure: 1893698.38
Weighted Gamma Exposure: 90599.89
Average Daily Volume: 7986631
Premium Analysis: Call premiums very high
1wk Price Ranges For Premium Selling:
$332.67
$293.12
-
$279.38
$245.89
CONVERGENT WALLS:
$300.00: Call Vanna Right + Put Vanna Left (Combined Strength: 0.159805)
$295.00: Call Gamma Left + Put Gamma Left (Combined Strength: 0.014513)
$290.00: Call Vanna Left + Put Vanna Right (Combined Strength: 0.483926)
-
$285.00: Call Gamma Right + Put Gamma Right (Combined Strength: 0.011538)
AAPL
Current Stock Price: $210.16
Weighted Delta Exposure: 141608.95
Weighted Gamma Exposure: 850726.01
Average Daily Volume: 54118854
Premium Analysis: Balanced premium - neutral sentiment
1wk Price Ranges For Premium Selling:
$241.68
$216.25
-
$207.08
$178.64
CONVERGENT WALLS:
$217.50: Call Vanna Right + Put Vanna Left (Combined Strength: 0.266461)
-
$210.00: Call Vanna Left + Put Vanna Right (Combined Strength: 0.792182)
$207.50: Call Gamma Right + Put Gamma Right (Combined Strength: 0.030962)
MSFT
Current Stock Price: $505.62
Weighted Delta Exposure: 1581662.84
Weighted Gamma Exposure: 250690.44
Average Daily Volume: 19472216
Premium Analysis: Call premiums very high
1wk Price Ranges For Premium Selling:
$581.46
$513.17
-
$498.50
$429.78
CONVERGENT WALLS:
$512.50: Put Vanna Left + Call Gamma Left (Combined Strength: 0.157926)
-
$502.50: Call Gamma Right + Put Gamma Right (Combined Strength: 0.015222)
GOOG
Current Stock Price: $183.77
Weighted Delta Exposure: 1626919.26
Weighted Gamma Exposure: 277177.30
Average Daily Volume: 29339438
Premium Analysis: Call premiums very high
1wk Price Ranges For Premium Selling:
$211.34
$187.92
-
$178.75
$156.20
CONVERGENT WALLS:
$187.50: Call Gamma Left + Put Gamma Left (Combined Strength: 0.034581)
$185.00: Call Vanna Left + Put Vanna Right (Combined Strength: 0.624937)
-
$180.00: Call Gamma Right + Put Gamma Right (Combined Strength: 0.032821)
AMZN
Current Stock Price: $223.19
Weighted Delta Exposure: nan
Weighted Gamma Exposure: nan
Average Daily Volume: 44936427
Premium Analysis: Call premiums very high
1wk Price Ranges For Premium Selling:
$nan
$227.92
-
$218.75
$nan
CONVERGENT WALLS:
$230.00: Call Vanna Right + Put Vanna Left (Combined Strength: 0.280778)
$227.50: Call Gamma Left + Put Gamma Left (Combined Strength: 0.028069)
-
$222.50: Call Vanna Left + Put Vanna Right (Combined Strength: 0.672285)
$220.00: Call Gamma Right + Put Gamma Right (Combined Strength: 0.026119)
NVDA
Current Stock Price: $171.37
Weighted Delta Exposure: -41991455.93
Weighted Gamma Exposure: 2526225.64
Average Daily Volume: 184384423
Premium Analysis: Call premiums very high
1wk Price Ranges For Premium Selling:
$197.08
$176.25
-
$167.08
$145.66
CONVERGENT WALLS:
$177.50: Call Vanna Right + Put Vanna Left (Combined Strength: 0.215297)
$175.00: Call Gamma Left + Put Gamma Left (Combined Strength: 0.030616)
$172.50: Call Vanna Left + Put Vanna Right (Combined Strength: 0.555166)
-
$167.50: Call Gamma Right + Put Gamma Right (Combined Strength: 0.028370)
TSLA
Current Stock Price: $321.67
Weighted Delta Exposure: 36829.15
Weighted Gamma Exposure: 454843.23
Average Daily Volume: 101580220
Premium Analysis: Put premiums elevated
1wk Price Ranges For Premium Selling:
$369.92
$332.50
-
$314.17
$273.42
CONVERGENT WALLS:
$330.00: Call Gamma Left + Put Gamma Left (Combined Strength: 0.004971)
$322.50: Call Vanna Left + Put Vanna Right (Combined Strength: 0.207753)
-
$312.50: Call Gamma Right + Put Gamma Right (Combined Strength: 0.005142)
META
Current Stock Price: $702.91
Weighted Delta Exposure: 874270.48
Weighted Gamma Exposure: 83260.97
Average Daily Volume: 11396505
Premium Analysis: Balanced premium - neutral sentiment
1wk Price Ranges For Premium Selling:
$808.35
$721.25
-
$693.75
$597.47
CONVERGENT WALLS:
$717.50: Call Gamma Left + Put Gamma Left (Combined Strength: 0.002918)
-
$692.50: Call Gamma Right + Put Gamma Right (Combined Strength: 0.002583)
AMD
Current Stock Price: $160.08
Weighted Delta Exposure: 6990413.59
Weighted Gamma Exposure: 490059.00
Average Daily Volume: 56963469
Premium Analysis: Call premiums very high
1wk Price Ranges For Premium Selling:
$184.09
$166.42
-
$153.58
$136.07
CONVERGENT WALLS:
$165.00: Call Gamma Left + Put Gamma Left (Combined Strength: 0.015331)
-
$160.00: Call Vanna Left + Put Vanna Right (Combined Strength: 0.335864)
$155.00: Call Gamma Right + Put Gamma Right (Combined Strength: 0.017781)
AVGO
Current Stock Price: $280.81
Weighted Delta Exposure: 1782101.55
Weighted Gamma Exposure: 114471.29
Average Daily Volume: 21366106
Premium Analysis: Call premiums very high
1wk Price Ranges For Premium Selling:
$322.93
$292.50
-
$274.17
$238.69
CONVERGENT WALLS:
$287.50: Call Gamma Left + Put Gamma Left (Combined Strength: 0.010616)
-
$275.00: Call Gamma Right + Put Gamma Right (Combined Strength: 0.009861)
MU
Current Stock Price: $116.43
Weighted Delta Exposure: -1003959.91
Weighted Gamma Exposure: 337597.50
Average Daily Volume: 26659006
Premium Analysis: Call premiums elevated
1wk Price Ranges For Premium Selling:
$133.89
$121.92
-
$109.08
$98.97
CONVERGENT WALLS:
$122.00: Call Vanna Right + Put Vanna Left (Combined Strength: 0.200961)
-
$114.00: Call Gamma Right + Put Gamma Right (Combined Strength: 0.040009)
XLF
Current Stock Price: $52.01
Weighted Delta Exposure: -875602.65
Weighted Gamma Exposure: 3714221.40
Average Daily Volume: 38161294
Premium Analysis: Call premiums very high
1wk Price Ranges For Premium Selling:
$59.81
$53.08
-
$51.42
$44.21
CONVERGENT WALLS:
$53.00: Call Vanna Right + Put Gamma Left (Combined Strength: 1.428478)
-
$52.00: Call Vanna Left + Put Vanna Right (Combined Strength: 5.392426)
XLE
Current Stock Price: $86.13
Weighted Delta Exposure: -433976.79
Weighted Gamma Exposure: 801654.70
Average Daily Volume: 22104926
Premium Analysis: Put premiums very high
1wk Price Ranges For Premium Selling:
$99.05
$88.20
-
$83.80
$73.21
CONVERGENT WALLS:
$86.50: Call Vanna Left + Put Gamma Left (Combined Strength: 1.324537)
XLK
Current Stock Price: $258.71
Weighted Delta Exposure: 132965.62
Weighted Gamma Exposure: 22270.62
Average Daily Volume: 5949155
Premium Analysis: Call premiums very high
1wk Price Ranges For Premium Selling:
$297.52
$264.00
-
$249.33
$219.90
CONVERGENT WALLS:
$262.50: Call Gamma Left + Put Gamma Left (Combined Strength: 0.024167)
-
$257.50: Call Vanna Left + Put Vanna Right + Call Gamma Right (Combined Strength: 0.568397)
XLV
Current Stock Price: $134.25
Weighted Delta Exposure: 129935.79
Weighted Gamma Exposure: 107341.58
Average Daily Volume: 14012389
Premium Analysis: Call premiums elevated
1wk Price Ranges For Premium Selling:
$154.39
$137.28
-
$131.22
$114.11
CONVERGENT WALLS:
$134.50: Call Vanna Left + Put Gamma Left (Combined Strength: 1.043938)
-
$132.00: Call Vanna Right + Call Gamma Right (Combined Strength: 0.458461)
XLI
Current Stock Price: $150.41
Weighted Delta Exposure: 494876.44
Weighted Gamma Exposure: 48170.45
Average Daily Volume: 11073215
Premium Analysis: Call premiums very high
1wk Price Ranges For Premium Selling:
$172.97
$152.40
-
$143.60
$127.85
CONVERGENT WALLS:
$152.00: Call Vanna Right + Call Gamma Left + Put Gamma Left (Combined Strength: 0.347515)
-
$150.00: Call Vanna Left + Put Vanna Right + Call Gamma Right + Put Gamma Right (Combined Strength: 1.103675)
XLU
Current Stock Price: $82.03
Weighted Delta Exposure: 142451.45
Weighted Gamma Exposure: 111625.76
Average Daily Volume: 13159721
Premium Analysis: Call premiums very high
1wk Price Ranges For Premium Selling:
$94.33
$84.85
-
$80.82
$69.73
CONVERGENT WALLS:
No significant wall convergence detected.
XLY
Current Stock Price: $219.47
Weighted Delta Exposure: 111892.49
Weighted Gamma Exposure: 13155.81
Average Daily Volume: 4485738
Premium Analysis: Balanced premium - neutral sentiment
1wk Price Ranges For Premium Selling:
$252.39
$227.50
-
$209.17
$186.55
CONVERGENT WALLS:
$227.50: Call Vanna Right + Call Gamma Left (Combined Strength: 0.142406)
-
$215.00: Call Gamma Right + Put Gamma Right (Combined Strength: 0.015513)
XLP
Current Stock Price: $80.35
Weighted Delta Exposure: 156342.26
Weighted Gamma Exposure: 85632.42
Average Daily Volume: 15535030
Premium Analysis: Put premiums very high
1wk Price Ranges For Premium Selling:
$92.40
$82.67
-
$78.83
$68.30
CONVERGENT WALLS:
$81.50: Call Vanna Right + Call Gamma Left (Combined Strength: 1.496398)
$80.50: Call Vanna Left + Call Gamma Right (Combined Strength: 2.030049)
-
$80.00: Put Vanna Right + Put Gamma Left (Combined Strength: 1.172271)
MCD
Current Stock Price: $298.90
Weighted Delta Exposure: 108041.34
Weighted Gamma Exposure: 62681.87
Average Daily Volume: 4407705
Premium Analysis: Put premiums very high
1wk Price Ranges For Premium Selling:
$343.73
$303.12
-
$289.38
$254.06
CONVERGENT WALLS:
$302.50: Call Gamma Left + Put Gamma Left (Combined Strength: 0.026200)
$300.00: Call Vanna Left + Put Vanna Right (Combined Strength: 0.802245)
-
$295.00: Call Gamma Right + Put Gamma Right (Combined Strength: 0.023614)
TJX
Current Stock Price: $121.35
Weighted Delta Exposure: nan
Weighted Gamma Exposure: nan
Average Daily Volume: 5235332
Premium Analysis: Put premiums very high
1wk Price Ranges For Premium Selling:
$nan
$126.08
-
$116.92
$nan
CONVERGENT WALLS:
$121.00: Call Vanna Left + Put Vanna Right (Combined Strength: 1.394842)
KWEB
Current Stock Price: $35.33
Weighted Delta Exposure: 325561.39
Weighted Gamma Exposure: 1324082.22
Average Daily Volume: 14402409
Premium Analysis: Call premiums very high
1wk Price Ranges For Premium Selling:
$40.63
$36.25
-
$34.42
$30.03
CONVERGENT WALLS:
$36.50: Call Vanna Right + Put Vanna Left + Call Gamma Left + Put Gamma Left (Combined Strength: 1.149845)
$35.50: Call Vanna Left + Put Vanna Right (Combined Strength: 2.212716)
-
$34.50: Call Gamma Right + Put Gamma Right (Combined Strength: 0.423829)
NUGT
Current Stock Price: $73.30
Weighted Delta Exposure: 982.33
Weighted Gamma Exposure: 19509.52
Average Daily Volume: 975043
Premium Analysis: Call premiums very high
1wk Price Ranges For Premium Selling:
$84.30
$75.55
-
$70.78
$62.31
CONVERGENT WALLS:
$76.00: Put Vanna Left + Put Gamma Left (Combined Strength: 0.167974)
-
$73.00: Call Vanna Left + Call Gamma Left (Combined Strength: 0.280339)
HD
Current Stock Price: $357.40
Weighted Delta Exposure: 55809.71
Weighted Gamma Exposure: 28928.99
Average Daily Volume: 3945187
Premium Analysis: Balanced premium - neutral sentiment
1wk Price Ranges For Premium Selling:
$411.01
$365.75
-
$349.25
$303.79
CONVERGENT WALLS:
$357.50: Call Vanna Left + Put Vanna Right (Combined Strength: 0.541862)
WPM
Current Stock Price: $90.50
Weighted Delta Exposure: 91273.78
Weighted Gamma Exposure: 32361.78
Average Daily Volume: 1748952
Premium Analysis: Call premiums very high
1wk Price Ranges For Premium Selling:
$104.07
$93.58
-
$88.08
$76.92
CONVERGENT WALLS:
No significant wall convergence detected.
GLD
Current Stock Price: $308.26
Weighted Delta Exposure: 2337993.48
Weighted Gamma Exposure: 535813.54
Average Daily Volume: 9335083
Premium Analysis: Put premiums elevated
1wk Price Ranges For Premium Selling:
$354.50
$312.47
-
$302.20
$262.02
CONVERGENT WALLS:
$306.00: Call Gamma Right + Put Gamma Right (Combined Strength: 0.044241)
SLV
Current Stock Price: $34.41
Weighted Delta Exposure: 6961372.14
Weighted Gamma Exposure: 3665913.35
Average Daily Volume: 22887432
Premium Analysis: Call premiums very high
1wk Price Ranges For Premium Selling:
$39.57
$35.08
-
$33.42
$29.25
CONVERGENT WALLS:
$35.00: Call Gamma Left + Put Gamma Left (Combined Strength: 0.955497)
$34.50: Call Vanna Left + Put Vanna Right (Combined Strength: 3.738469)
-
$34.00: Call Gamma Right + Put Gamma Right (Combined Strength: 0.913994)
HYG
Current Stock Price: $80.06
Weighted Delta Exposure: -1101825.13
Weighted Gamma Exposure: 6887996.52
Average Daily Volume: 34963719
Premium Analysis: Put premiums elevated
1wk Price Ranges For Premium Selling:
$92.07
$81.25
-
$79.42
$68.05
CONVERGENT WALLS:
$81.00: Put Vanna Left + Put Gamma Left (Combined Strength: 3.158501)
$80.50: Call Vanna Left + Call Gamma Left (Combined Strength: 3.039787)
-
$79.50: Call Vanna Right + Call Gamma Right + Put Gamma Right (Combined Strength: 1.681718)
TLT
Current Stock Price: $85.13
Weighted Delta Exposure: -3968216.62
Weighted Gamma Exposure: 2391747.65
Average Daily Volume: 37760679
Premium Analysis: Put premiums very high
1wk Price Ranges For Premium Selling:
$97.90
$86.08
-
$84.42
$72.36
CONVERGENT WALLS:
$86.50: Call Vanna Right + Put Vanna Left (Combined Strength: 2.720881)
$86.00: Call Gamma Left + Put Gamma Left (Combined Strength: 0.813971)
-
$85.00: Call Vanna Left + Put Vanna Right (Combined Strength: 6.963267)
$84.50: Call Gamma Right + Put Gamma Right (Combined Strength: 0.661910)
VXX
Current Stock Price: $45.91
Weighted Delta Exposure: 9116.86
Weighted Gamma Exposure: 177222.96
Average Daily Volume: 4533110
Premium Analysis: Put premiums very high
1wk Price Ranges For Premium Selling:
$52.80
$47.17
-
$43.50
$39.02
CONVERGENT WALLS:
$46.00: Call Vanna Left + Put Vanna Right (Combined Strength: 0.728920)
-
$44.00: Call Gamma Right + Put Gamma Right (Combined Strength: 0.158196)
UVXY
Current Stock Price: $17.44
Weighted Delta Exposure: -7015073.97
Weighted Gamma Exposure: 779835.35
Average Daily Volume: 18900512
Premium Analysis: Put premiums very high
1wk Price Ranges For Premium Selling:
$20.06
$18.10
-
$15.90
$14.82
CONVERGENT WALLS:
$18.00: Call Gamma Left + Put Gamma Left (Combined Strength: 0.454737)
$17.50: Call Vanna Left + Put Vanna Right (Combined Strength: 1.220117)
-
$16.00: Put Vanna Left + Call Gamma Right + Put Gamma Right (Combined Strength: 0.562416)
Disclaimer: Consult a financial professional before making investment decisions. The author is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or financial planner. No advisory relationship is created between the author and subscribers through the use of this publication or any content contained herein.